Drain the gear lube out of the lower.If its had water intrusion you will see it in the oil.
I bet what you are seeing around the prop is unburnt fuel-oil mixture.
Very normal when running on the muffs especially if the motor has not been run much in a while..
If it was gear lube leaking it would have that strong smell to it and be really thick..
I bet once you get it in the water and run it good it will be fine.
It never hurts to check the gear lube though..
I change mine 2 times a year just to be safe..