Ok. I guess knowing the build up of this area would help me. So on the transom we have 1/8" gel coat. Then fiberglass throughout. Although on the transom we have some form of wood bonded within the materials? How thick is the aft end of a hull? If you notice, this crack is under an inch, even as close as half inch from the bottom corner.
I did drill that first hole, and without going too far I did get the gel coat of course, and the fiberglass. I can easily following the crack through the gel coat but it seems to end of the fiberglass. I did 2 more holes with the same results. Where in the make up is the wood? If this crack is so low, and has stopped at the fiberglass; where could it contact the wood?
only a guess but there is a minor damage right at the end of the keel. The impact, along with the drain could have flexed the area.