Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

[Knot Waiting]

Is it possible we may live to see an end to this or are we destined to bankrupt ourselves at the pump? I've read wildly varying reports on the subject but was curious what the insightful folk on iboats thought?

I personally dont know how to feel and dont know enough about the ebb and flow of the oil market to make and educated guess. Didn't live through the 70's crisis so I cant make anything of this one. All I am doing is crossing my fingers.

 

[Bob_VT]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

If we had the answers .... the correct answers we would all be rich.

Only time will tell.

I think we are here to stay but that is just my opinion..... and yes I "lived" through the last crisis.

 

[JustJason]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

or all be poor....

it sucks that a few thousand people make the decisions that effect hundreds of millions of people.

 

[jay_merrill]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

In the US, my guess is that they will fall somewhat over the next couple of weeks, since the Memorial Day weekend will have passed. There will be all sort of phony discussions on why prices "just happened" to surge right before the holiday but the pattern will be as usual. From that point, I think will see a gradual buildup over the summer, as we usually do, and the high price point will be well over what it is even now.

What is different this year, however, is the introduction of more speculation by oil traders. Also a factor is that people are apparently canceling travel plans that they might not have at a lower gasoline price. So, we have people creating an artificially high price point for crude on one hand, but we have real cutback in usage for the first time in many years, on the other hand. Only time will tell which factor becomes the stronger one.

 

[Bigprairie1]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

I'm pretty sure the short answer is no. Its unlikely the price will head down...at least very far.
I believe the reason will simply be 'supply and demand'. If supply continues to drop (internationally) and demand (internationally) continues to rise...why would it go down? Why would any commodity go down with that reason/situation hovering? Its the root of business and free enterprise. There is money to be made for those astute enough to be dealing in such a valuable item.
Wish there was better new tho'.
my two bits.
BP

 

[BamaAlum97]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

If/When the value of the American dollar increases, gas/oil prices should ease up a bit. Although, I doubt we will ever buy sub $3 gas again.

 

[tashasdaddy]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

i had to pay $4.05 a gallon yesterday, made me sick. we are cutting back on silly runs. when we drive we make the trip count.

 

[Lakester]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

hello,
doubtful we will see chepGas when barrel of oil is $135 +/- and some calling for $200-250 3 yrs or so...

btw, MSNBC this morn has a gasPrice segment... predicting $15.00+/gal within several years...

regards
lakester

 

[thefairlaneman]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

Gas prices will fall when COWS FLY...We have been a country too long where even the poor find ways to waste gas. If you dont like the price,just DONT buy it....This is yuppy logic. Besides when poor folks cant buy it ,it will leave more for the yuppys.Its only money .those who have more than their fair share of it and those KEPT in a place where they dont...some call it economic slavery.

 

[kenmyfam]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

No !!!!!!!
Not till we stop using the internal combustion engine !!!!

 

[Vlad D Impeller]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

If/When the value of the American dollar increases, gas/oil prices should ease up a bit. Although, I doubt we will ever buy sub $3 gas again.

That's an absolute fact, sadly most folks don't want to hear that.
During the oil crisis of the 1970's we had a strong and competitive manufacturing base, the export of our products around the globe helped to buffer the impact that the spike in oil prices had created, it kept the deficit in check and the Feds were able to moderately control the interest rates.
Today even the shoes we wear is not Made in the USA.
I look to see oil trading at between $195.00 and $220.00 per barrel by the end of the year.
Gas at the pumps will be between $4.10 and $4.80 depending in what part of the country you are in.
Thats all that my crystal ball is saying at the moment.

 

[thefairlaneman]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

If the barrel price does go to 200 we will have about 7 bucks agal price but dont forget short supply, accidents. bad weather, and price games ADD to this . A noted economic expert said at present conditions 5 buck a gallon will for sure cause a DEEP recession and economic melt down...We will soon find out.

 

[SgtMaj]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

Well, it's easily remedied... have the federal govt. seize some perfectly legal oil investments, then watch the bottom fall out of the oil market as everyone else dumps their oil investments... price no longer artifically inflated... of course... freedom would also no longer be artificially inflated.

 

[kenimpzoom]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

Yes, they will.

When supply outpaces demand.

We need a major economy to fall into a deep recession, or start pumping oil from the ground in record rates. We are now paying for high prices, because prices were so low for about 10 years. For 10 years, oil companies didnt explore for oil. No exploration equals no pumping from the ground. We have relied on those old oil finds for too long and they are starting to dry up.

Dont believe the BS about peak oil. We arent even near peak oil. We are at peak demand. Peak demand will drive more exploration for oil, and thus supply will increase in about 5 years.

Trust me folks, I work in the business. We are exploring for oil at record rates. Sadly, the oil majors play second fiddle to the National Oil companies, who control most of the major oil fields now.

Anyone else remember when crude hit 8 dollars/bbl in 1999? I do, I was on a oil rig in Brunei. That was caused by the recession in Asia.

Ken

 

[mscher]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

That's an absolute fact, sadly most folks don't want to hear that.
During the oil crisis of the 1970's we had a strong and competitive manufacturing base, the export of our products around the globe helped to buffer the impact that the spike in oil prices had created, it kept the deficit in check and the Feds were able to moderately control the interest rates.

What country are you referring to? The US was in a terrible recession in the 70's, with double-digit inflation, double-digit interest rates and unemployment rates as high as 9%.

The only real way oil prices will come down is to reduce demand significantly.

It may take a recession as it did in the 70's, but this time it will need to be a WORLDWIDE recession, get the job.

 

[Tail_Gunner]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.983582/browse_thread/thread/c6f06f136ff41dd4?hl=en#



Big money shorts are manipulating the price of oil against us,
deliberately creating and inflating the oil bubble, against the
broader market and economy, so they can short at lower prices! This is
an old trick they've used before, but this time they've exploited the
Enron Loophole to the fullest, making it even worse. They would
crucify the entire economy on the oil barrel, to suit their bearish
agendas, if they aren't stopped. Luckily, veto-proof legislation has
recently been passed, to close the Enron Loophole once and for all.
There's a lot more mopping up needed, though. Hence, I post this.

Update:

On the _Closing_Bell_ program on CNBC, yesterday (Friday,) it was
disclosed that retail (public) investors buying into oil through banks
are showing up in statistics as institutional, not retail/speculative,
activity! That's because the banks (institutions) do the buying on
behalf of their customers. This further skews the statistics,
contributing to the oil bubble.

A related piece of news:

Energy Speculators Draw the Heat
New York Times
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ
Published: May 25, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/25/business/25maker.html?ref=business

This is a pure bubble, entirely unfounded when it comes to the
fundamentals of supply and demand. Huge amounts of oil are being
hoarded offshore just so they don't have to be reported in
inventories, the Enron Loophole has been exploited to the max to pump
up this bubble, and other scandalous and deceitful activities, such as
fund managers getting major air time just to talk their books and
thereby fuel the wild speculation! Market bears are trying to use oil
to crush the market down so they can cover at lower prices, an old
trick which they _have_ used before, but this time it's worse because
they used the Enron Loophole, which has only existed since the year
2000!

Lots more info here:
http://finance.google.com/group/google.finance.6048077/browse_thread/...


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From:matthewterh...@gmail.com - view profileDate:Sat, May 24 2008 3:53 pm Email: matthewterh...@gmail.com
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Do you happen to know when Bush is due to sign the bill closing the
loophole? I can't find the info anywhere.

http://www.google.com/search?source=ig&hl=en&rlz=&q=Enron+loophole




Do some reading guy's this thing is such a embarsement no one wants to talk about...read get informed and light a fire up under your senate rep's ask them who they really represent

 

[rodbolt]

Re: Will Gas Prices Ever Fall?

to start with, the 70's was an actual shortage. when the opec nations embargoed oil production it took some years to regain that production from other sources.
this time there is no shortage of crude, in fact crude oil storage is almost at its max capacity.
reading some oil market magazines it seems that gasoline refining is slumping due to lack of gasoline storage capacity.
watching C-span, yep I was that bored at 3 am, the other night when the senate was grilling 10 oil company CEO's, the CEO of connoco phippips basically said as long as the consumer buys it we will charge it.
problem is its basically a monopoly, limited facilities for the transport,transfer, refining locations and distribution. and ll the compnies know it.
what I never got is the price per future bbl goes up 2 dollars, the price at the pump imediatly goes up 5cents on fuel that was already in the stations underground tanks.
yep its just like the CEO said, if they will pay it thats what were gonna sell it for.
however I cant see our economy being able to absorb the cost rise this rapidly, like it was pointed out, a large segment of our manufacturing base has been outsourced overseas.
couple that with the Housing market fiasco and the fact most politians are so dissconected from real life and I dont see an end for a few years.
but the only correlation from the current crises to the one of the 70's is now there is no shortage no lines and no rationing, yes I lived through the 70's crises, was working at a shell station in Vallejo CA.
but even then it was a partially manufactured shortage, we would ride over to Martinez and look at all the fully loaded tankers riding at anchor due to no storage left on the beach. they filled the anchorage up and were actually turning tankers away due to no safe moorings in the harbor. thats how I got to take a ride on the Exxon Eagle.
let one Hurricane simply threaten the Gulf of Mexico this year and you will see 200/bbl very quickly.
but other than either cutting back consumption or simply paying to play I dont see much nyone can do about it, especially since most the major political players today are so entrenched with big oil and the profits.