GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

[Fly Rod]

And the market tumbles 400+ points. This man is like EF Hutton, he speaks and the world listens. And yesterday he said the RRRRRRRR word, "RECESSION."

 

[JB]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Just shows how secure the speculators are. . .always on the edge of panic.

 

[crunch]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Hmmmm.... I think it has a whole lot more to do with the stock market crash in China....

 

[stevieray]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

This kind of thing is what makes me real nervous whenever any talk of "privatizing" Social Security is brought up.

If everybody's SS funds were freed up all of a sudden, where do you think most people would be tempted to put it? Wall St., right? Prices would "artificially" go up big & fast due to the influx. All it would take is one announcement like this - or higher power forbid, another 9/11 - then all the big players (and there's plenty of them) would decide to cash in - and BLAM! a huge percentage of us are instantly poor.

As always, the market would probably recover as the big boys slowly bought back in, but it might take too long for anybody who really needs it to benefit.

Just some food for thought as our stock-based personal 401K & IRA's are worth about 4% less today than yesterday.

 

[JRJ]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Just about where I was on Jan. 11th with the ups and downs.

 

[waterinthefuel]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Hmmmm.... I think it has a whole lot more to do with the stock market crash in China....

No, because as I understand it he was in Hong Kong or somewhere in Asia when he talked about a recession and it was then that China's economy lost so much. We just followed in China's footsteps because Greenspan is one of ours, idiot. If he'd just keep his dayum mouth shut the economy would be fine.

That's how I understand it.

 

[crunch]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Greenspan is influential, but not that much... you have to go beyond just what you hear on the MSM.

Wall St slides on worry about China, growth

By Ellis Mnyandu

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks tumbled on Tuesday, sending the benchmark S&P 500 index to its biggest one-day slide in more than 3-1/2 years as China's equity market sell-off fanned worries that stock valuations there are too high and some data indicated U.S. economic growth may slow.

During the session, the Nasdaq Composite index dropped 3 percent as investors dumped technology shares and the stocks of other companies that rely heavily on Chinese demand.

"Fear has infected the financial markets," said Frederic Ruffy, an options analyst at Optionetics, an options education company in Redwood City, California.

The CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge," surged 59.10 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 288

points, or 2.28 percent, at 12,344. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 52 points, or 3.6 percent, at 1,397. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 95points, or 3.8 percent, at 2,409.59. $64.71 on the New York Stock Exchange.

All 30 stocks in the blue-chip Dow average were in the red as the U.S. stock market fell in sync with other global markets.

http://today.reuters.com/news/artic...TRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-STOCKS.xml&src=rss&rpc=23

***********************************************************************

China stocks sink 8.8 pct on crackdown fears By Andrew Torchia
Tue Feb 27, 7:25 AM ET



SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese stocks plunged nearly 9 percent on Tuesday, erasing about $140 billion of value in their biggest fall for a decade, amid fears that authorities would crack down on speculation that drove shares to record highs.

Traders said the slide did not appear to be triggered by concrete news. Institutions scrambled in hectic trade to lock in large gains made early this month, while some funds sold to raise money to pay dividends in March.

The tumble came a day after the main index jumped to an all-time high, bringing its gains for this year to 14 percent. The market soared 130 percent last year, making it the world's best-performing major market.

"This kind of terrifying fall means the market has become abnormal," said analyst Chen Huiqin at Huatai Securities, adding that shares could take a while to stabilize even if negative rumors about government policy proved false.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070227/bs_nm/markets_china_stocks_close_dc_1

 

[crunch]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Then there is this little gem...
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[crunch]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

I'm kinnda wait'in for OMR to wiegh in on this......

 

[Plainsman]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

This kind of thing is what makes me real nervous whenever any talk of "privatizing" Social Security is brought up.

If everybody's SS funds were freed up all of a sudden, where do you think most people would be tempted to put it? Wall St., right? Prices would "artificially" go up big & fast due to the influx. All it would take is one announcement like this - or higher power forbid, another 9/11 - then all the big players (and there's plenty of them) would decide to cash in - and BLAM! a huge percentage of us are instantly poor.

As always, the market would probably recover as the big boys slowly bought back in, but it might take too long for anybody who really needs it to benefit.

Just some food for thought as our stock-based personal 401K & IRA's are worth about 4% less today than yesterday.

I thought that only a few percent would be allowed in the markets while the rest was put in bonds or something safe like that so you couldn't lose it all. I would like to have a little say in it. just my .02

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Thanks Crunch, But I had to keep my big fat mouth shut about investments in a public forum for sooooo long, (except when I taught night classes for the last five years of my career, and even then the Lawyers had to approve my outlines), I've been conditioned to avoid discussions like these. Obviously I would have to have an "Investment Philosophy" that would be reasonably sucessfull to survive 5 years at EF Hutton and 15 years at an even bigger outfit that unlike EF HUtton still exists and would rather not have any publicity they can't totally control. For that and other reasons I choose to keep my foot on the ground and outa my mouth on this particular topic. Thanks for the thought though. JR

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

On second thought I will make one very minor comment to spur some critical thinkin'. Social Security. I'm no FDR fan but like the rest of us here in America, (the 50 states of USA), I do think the retirement side of SS does have some merrit n' we all do count on it to some degree. It was very dissapointing to me that some privatization of SS did not catch the attention of the American public. Private ownership of some of our tax dollars is a REAL BAD thing right? Come on please! Please do not believe the Algore's "lockbox" corncept. Like many things outa ol' Al's mouth it is false. The money is spent by our fearless, (with our money) leaders before it is printed. If a % of your taxes were set asside into a private account ol' Al could not spend the $!!! Please think real hard n' tell me why that is bad? The poor would be the greatest benificiaries!! It's forced savings! Think of the profound very positive effects of IRA s n' 401-k s!! Why let Al have all your SS $?? The set up is real simple you could settle for t bill rates n' total security or invest in an index of some sort. Some would get better returns then others but it would all be WIN WIN. The fluctualtions in the market are pain for some and opportunity for others. It really works GREAT! My $.02 Respectfully, (and I mean it to all) JR

 

[crunch]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Thanx Murky. I always prefer to hear it from an expert.

I read somewhere that there is no such thing as a “SS Fund”, it all goes into the general fund and SS is payed out of that. If that is true, what politicians say about the “fund” going broke is just another way of saying they are over spending... spending our retirement funds.

Correct me if I’m wrong.

 

[Haut Medoc]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

I will defer to Murky's expertise, but I think that pretty much sums it up.......:%

 

[crunch]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

If you are referring to my post Haut..... this is getting really scary.

 

[stevieray]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

On second thought I will make one very minor comment to spur some critical thinkin'. Social Security. I'm no FDR fan but like the rest of us here in America, (the 50 states of USA), I do think the retirement side of SS does have some merrit n' we all do count on it to some degree. It was very dissapointing to me that some privatization of SS did not catch the attention of the American public. Private ownership of some of our tax dollars is a REAL BAD thing right? Come on please! Please do not believe the Algore's "lockbox" corncept. Like many things outa ol' Al's mouth it is false. The money is spent by our fearless, (with our money) leaders before it is printed. If a % of your taxes were set asside into a private account ol' Al could not spend the $!!! Please think real hard n' tell me why that is bad? The poor would be the greatest benificiaries!! It's forced savings! Think of the profound very positive effects of IRA s n' 401-k s!! Why let Al have all your SS $?? The set up is real simple you could settle for t bill rates n' total security or invest in an index of some sort. Some would get better returns then others but it would all be WIN WIN. The fluctualtions in the market are pain for some and opportunity for others. It really works GREAT! My $.02 Respectfully, (and I mean it to all) JR

Murky,
I agree that there is a small group of very smart investors who could benefit greatly from some privatization - I'm sure those same guys are doing very well all over. So I am not saying it is a real bad thing at all. What I'm talking about is the average Joe. I am a relatively intelligent guy - on things mechanical & technical, anyway. But I have no clue on the inside of the financial world - and I am certain I have lots of company. I just get a real uneasy feeling when one small thing like Greenspan's quasi-announcement can cause such a panic & put so much in jeopardy.

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Hey Stevieray, If we all knew how vulnerable we were with our own single family houses as they fluctuated on a ticker tape, (which they don't so it is easy to ignore that huge risk we all face), you could make the exact same statement about that sector. I admit that the vast ocean of investors out there are quite similar to you, (I dealt with many people who I usually assumed were smarter then me to accumulate all their wealth that I helped them with). The sucessfull ones were very good at what they do, confident of risks (that actually are far bigger then the markets), that they deal with in their business lives every day, and do not consider risks at all because: they understand them. It would not be hard at all to design a SS plan just like a giant 401-k plan that Corporations have. You could design the plan to dampen the market risks, and heavily discourage speculation. You could have as many as ten choices or so with various mixtures of Large Cap/ Mid Cap/ Small cap domestic equities and Government/Corporate bonds of various maturities. Maybe a small allocation of large/mid cap foriegn based equities and Corp and Soveriegn Bonds in one of the options. You would allow only a very limited ability to switch the portfolio from sub account to sub account, and place a transaction cost to penalize speculators who tried to play agressively. You would have a, (default) T-Bill account that would be absolutely as secure as the USA is. The MAJOR point here Stevieray is this: You, I and every one would own a small portion of our forced savings plan and could pass it on to our kids and/or heirs. Algore could not spend it EVER, as it would belong to us individually! We have a far too low a savings rate in this Great Country, and the poor would actually have something to pass on. The benifits dwarf the risks. Respectfully, JR

 

[crunch]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

Greenspan Says U.S. Recession Possible, Not Probable (Update5)

By Jason Clenfield and Kiyori Ueno

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a recession in the U.S. is possible, though not probable this year as excess inventory is being reduced quickly, according to people attending a CLSA Japan Forum in Tokyo today.

``By the end of the year, there is the possibility, but not the probability of the U.S. moving into recession,'' Greenspan said, according to notes taken by Bernard Key, a former economics professor at Tama University in Tokyo, who attended the event.

Greenspan's comments may be an attempt to clarify remarks he made on Feb. 26 that some traders say contributed to a global plunge in stocks the following day. He told an audience in Hong Kong three days ago that he couldn't rule out a recession this year in part because slowing growth in profit margins suggests the expansion might be winding down, the Associated Press reported.

His earlier statement was ``probably misinterpreted, that's why we see a clarification today,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist for Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20670001&refer=worldwide&sid=adHw6ufJ84ao

 

[JRJ]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

With that news, I'm back where I was on Oct. 17:|

 

[OldMercsRule]

Re: GREENSPAN SPEAKS!!

With that news, I'm back where I was on Oct. 17:|

[colour=red]Somebody I really like said: "when the goin' gets tough the tough buy more"! Dunno who but I REALLY like it! That IS NOT A SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATION, just an observation. Steady constant unemotional investing, (like a 401-k does), will force you to buy when things are relatively cheap n' you are affraid ta buy, but logic dictates you are gettin' the best deal. Emotions: Greed n' Fear are the enemies of a rational sucessfull investor. When I was really terrified 10/19/1987 I surpressed my fear, looked into the valley o' death n' bought some shares. Hind sight bein' 20 - 20, some o' the best trades I ever did!! [/colour] I am just throwin' out valid ideas to ponder not makin' ANY recomendations. Respectfully JR