With the rig in the water and just before you go roaring down the waterway.......................
Temporarily disconnect the shift cable from the engine, then manually, with the engine's shift lever, put the engine into forward gear.
Now, if the engine still "jumps"... which is normally described as constantly hitting a submerged object... one can assume that the shifting lobes are worn on the shifter dog and the forward gear.
On the other hand... if the engine no longer "jumps"... the shift cable requires adjusting.