How accurate is your marine forecast?

[dingbat]

We where sitting around over the weekend laughing about how awful the marine forecast are for our area.

I've been out in small craft warning when it was smooth as glass and have been out on "glass" days where you couldn't stand up in the boat.

How accruate are yours?

Here is the forecast for the middle of the week. Believable or not?

WED
N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVES 1 TO
2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WED NIGHT
SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.

THU
S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 3 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY.

 

[capt sam]

Re: How accurate is your marine forecast?

The forecasts are always better than actual conditions or so it seems anyways. We can dial an 800-number and use a specific buoy number and get actual conditions at that buoy, that's made a big difference in deciding to go or not.

 

[marine4003]

Re: How accurate is your marine forecast?

Forecasts are like throwing darts at a board with different probability's printed on it...i use buoy data plus real time radar...otherwise its a guessing game with most meteorologists....

 

[skargo]

Re: How accurate is your marine forecast?

We are fairly close, and I see what you mean. I've not went out because of small craft advisories and missed great days!

WED
N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVES
1 FT.

WED NIGHT
SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.

THU
SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT. SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY.

 

[dodgeramsst2003]

Re: How accurate is your marine forecast?

I've basically given up using the forecasts for wave conditions. I look at the wind forecasts, go outside, look at the trees and then make my own decision after looking at the radar loop.

I boat on Lake Erie, and it seems everytime they call for 1-2ft waves, its 3-5. When they call for 3-5, they're 1-2.