Oil from that hole could come from the following.
Top seal on the upper drive shaft in the drive shaft housing. Very unlikely. The seal and shaft are not moved or disturbed in any way during servicing..
Shift shaft seal. Possible, but I would think only about a 10-15% probability.
Missing/displaced quad ring seal (between the 2 housings). This would be my bet.
If it were the seals in the water pump base, you'd see the oil at the water intakes at the same time (and more there than the forward cavity drain hole).
Chris..