So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

[kenimpzoom]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

High and dry with two generators and a water well.

If the storm takes the projected track, it will create a 10-15 ft storm surge in the area LF lives. Possibly even 20 ft.

The difference between this storm and others is how large it is. Winds arent that high, but it is very spread out so the wind will last a long time.

Also the central pressure is very low (strong storm), but the winds are only 100 mph. Very unusual and it is predicted the winds will increase all the way to landfall as opposed to decreaseing as it approaches land. Very unusual storm, this one may surprise a few people.

Ken

 

[Limited-Time]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

KIZ, how far inland are you?? Baytown doesn't look to be that far from the coast

 

[mthieme]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

I beieve the forecasters have a big wheel like on "Wheel of Fortune" with states and city names on the wheel. Every hour, one of them spins the wheel and that's the latest prediction of landfall.

Geez I love your posts!
The only difference between weathermen and politicians is that the weathermen don't have to go looking for a new job every four years.

 

[tashasdaddy]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

we are still getting bans from it and its way out in the gulf. i thinks everyone on the gulf is going to feel something from it. those north bans are getting close to N.O. now.

 

[kenimpzoom]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

KIZ, how far inland are you?? Baytown doesn't look to be that far from the coast

We are 1/2 mile south of I-10, about 5 miles north of Baytown proper. Plenty of elevation where I am at.

Old Baytown proper will get some storm surge if it comes in as forecast. The forecast track is the absolute worst case senario for Galveston bay, Trinity bay, and the Houston ship channel. Could be some big buck damage here folks. If the Houston ship channel is shut down, there could be some gas shortages.

Winds will not be the major damage factor here. Storm surge has the potential to put Galveston Island 100% underwater. Ol refineries along the Texas gulf coast will be underwater and without power.



Ken

 

[kenimpzoom]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

Maximum Water Levels Forecast:

Shoreline Of Matagorda And Galveston Bays...15 To 20 Feet

Gulf-facing Coastal Areas From Matagorda To High Island Including
Galveston Island...12 To 16 Feet

Life Threatening Inundation Likely!

All Neighborhoods...and Possibly Entire Coastal Communities...
Will Be Inundated During High Tide. Persons Not Heeding
Evacuation Orders In Single Family One Or Two Story Homes Will
Face Certain Death. Many Residences Of Average Construction
Directly On The Coast Will Be Destroyed. Widespread And
Devastating Personal Property Damage Is Likely Elsewhere. Vehicles
Left Behind Will Likely Be Swept Away. Numerous Roads Will Be
Swamped...some May Be Washed Away By The Water. Entire Flood Prone
Coastal Communities Will Be Cutoff. Water Levels May Exceed 9 Feet
For More Than A Mile Inland. Coastal Residents In Multi-story
Facilities Risk Being Cutoff. Conditions Will Be Worsened By
Battering Waves. Such Waves Will Exacerbate Property Damage...with
Massive Destruction Of Homes...including Those Of Block
Construction. Damage From Beach Erosion Could Take Years To
Repair.

 

[Limited-Time]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

We are 1/2 mile south of I-10, about 5 miles north of Baytown proper. Plenty of elevation where I am at.

Old Baytown proper will get some storm surge if it comes in as forecast. The forecast track is the absolute worst case senario for Galveston bay, Trinity bay, and the Houston ship channel. Could be some big buck damage here folks. If the Houston ship channel is shut down, there could be some gas shortages.

Winds will not be the major damage factor here. Storm surge has the potential to put Galveston Island 100% underwater. Ol refineries along the Texas gulf coast will be underwater and without power.

Ken

Whatever it takes KIZ just be safe..............Our prayers are with you and all those in harms way................keep us posted if you can............and good luck.

 

[bootle]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

The track has changed considerably since yesterday.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Looks like we will be lucky once again. I feel for anyone it Ike's path, it'll be a large and very powerful storm as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico.

Get to hell outta there. Leave and don't forget to take the dog.

 

[jay_merrill]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

For those in Galveston, Houston, etc., I agree that you need to skeedaddle. The storm is now about 300 miles due south of New Orleans and we already have steady winds of 35 mph, with gusts that are much higher. My power went out for a couple of hours this afternoon - had to crank up the generator again.

If we are getting this from a storm that is so far away, I don't think you want to be anywhere near this beast when it hits the beach! Hit the road while you can!

 

[Reel Poor]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

Just be safe Ken. The Fishes and KK have already, or are in the process of evacuating. The prediction for surge height in the northwest bay area around Hwy 146 is near 30 feet while it's 20-24 feet at Galveston island, with a 10% chance the surge could exceed indicated height. This is because the water will be funneled into such a confined area.

If you have a problem seeing this pic, press the Ctrl button on your keyboard while scrolling your mouse. This will allow you to zoom in or out on the pic.

Source: http://www.crownweather.com/ike.html

 

[kenimpzoom]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

I saw on the TV at Jamacia beach (where LF lives) is underwater already. The eye is still more than 12 hours away.

This is the second most powerful storm in recorded history in terms of "total energy". It dwarfs Katrina.

We are safe where we are at, trying to convince my sister and BIL to come to where we are. They are only 2 miles from the bay.

I have researched this several times. A cat 5 massive storm surge wont even come close to our house.

Ken

 

[kenimpzoom]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.

 

[kenimpzoom]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, storm tides along the Mississippi coast peaked at about 6 feet above normal yesterday, with a 7 foot storm tide observed on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. At 10 am CDT, storm tides of 5-6 feet were being seen in western Louisiana, and were 5 feet at Freeport, Texas, and 5.5 feet at Galveston. According to the latest NWS forecast from the Galveston office, we can expect the following storm surges in Texas:

Gulf-facing coastline west of Sargent... 4 to 6 feet

Shoreline of Matagorda Bay... 2 to 5 feet

Gulf-facing coastline from Sargent to San Luis Pass... 12 to 15 feet

Gulf-facing coastline San Luis Pass to High Island including Galveston Island... ... 15 to 20 feet

Shoreline of Galveston Bay...15 to 25 feet

NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 27-30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston. The exact track of Ike is key in determining if Galveston's 17-foot sea wall gets overtopped, flooding the city. A slight wobble 30 miles to the north of Galveston would put the city into offshore winds from Ike, possibly saving it from inundation. The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries.


Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.

 

[fdmsiv]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

My thoughts and prayers are with the folks along the TX coast.

I cannot believe that Houston has taken the opinion that a Katrina type disaster (the days following the storm, looting, lawlessness, panic, failed response) can never happen, that Houstonians are somehow immune to something like this.

It drives me nuts that people only look at the impending issues, not the ones that show up down the road. Most people think that once the wind dies down everything will be OK.

This is going to get interesting...

 

[kenimpzoom]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

Houston will be fine. Max winds are 105 MPH. Houston did fine with Alcia, with similar wind speeds. Damage yes... riots, insanity, mass looting... No.

I suspect the biggest problem will be broken windows downtown. Those that build glasss houses should not expect them to make it though a hurricane.

Ken

 

[QC]

Re: So...Where's IKE gonna hit???

I just got my arse out of there. Got home 30 minutes ago. I typically fly out on Thursday and for some stupid arse reason I scheduled my flight this flippin' week for Friday. Tried to get out yesterday, but everything was booked. Last flight out of IAH will be at 2:00 PM today, nothing on Saturday. Felt lucky to have a seat. We closed our shop and most businesses have closed of course. Somewhat of a Ghost Town right now . . .